There are good reasons for Canada to have followed
this approach in the past. Following the lead of our allies appears to improve
Canada’s standing in the world, especially amongst peer allied nations, and
allows Canada to exercise some leadership in international affairs. This increased leadership role allows Canada
to further its interests through diplomacy. These policies also make it
possible for the Government of Canada to highlight perceived successes abroad
so as to increase popular support for its foreign policy and raise awareness of
the role of the Armed Forces in maintaining security.
However this is not the only policy option
available. As a sovereign power Canada can set its own
strategic priorities. Moreover, by continuing
the historical pattern of letting alliance leaders determine its’ strategy, the
case can be made that Canada is abdicating its responsibility to protect its own
national interests.
The Canadian Armed Forces spend time and resources
estimating the capabilities and kinds of forces they may confront in the
future. The need to assess the probable opposition is driven by the requirement
to determine what resources will be necessary to meet those threats. The time
has come to start making the same estimations about the capabilities and
intentions of those allies who, at least in the past, we have expected to be
fighting alongside. These assessments should be driven by the same need to determine
the resources necessary to meet the goals of the Government of Canada.
We are approaching the point at which it becomes
necessary to take a more active role in safeguarding our own security
interests. As quoted in MacLean’s
Magazine while discussing his book “America: The Farewell Tour” author Chris Hedges is quoted as
saying: “America
is an empire. So we’re much more fragile than nation-states, non-imperial
countries. You
see that throughout history: the ancient Greeks invading Sicily, and their
entire fleet sunk, thousands of soldiers killed and their empire becoming
unsustainable; or in 1956 when Britain tries to invade Egypt after the
nationalization of the Suez Canal, retreats in humiliation and thereby triggers
a financial crisis and the end of the pound sterling as a reserve currency,
marking the death of the British Empire, which had been on a slow descent since
the end of World War One. The dollar as the world’s current reserve currency is
running on fumes. The moment that’s over, American financial supremacy is
instantly finished. It will be very similar to the aftermath of the Suez
disaster—something like that is always characteristic of late empire. And the
fragility of an empire means that when collapse comes it’s almost
instantaneous. You look back at the rapid final fall of the old Soviet Union. A
failing empire is like a house of cards that just comes down—it’s not a slow
descent. We know from history what happens. It’s not a mystery.”
This is not just speculation. The U.K.’s Global Strategic Trends
describes a 2045 People’s Republic of China (PRC) with an economy more than
double that of the United States ($62.9 trillion versus $30.7 trillion) and
noting that even today, the PRC military may already be “close to matching that
of the U.S., perhaps exceeding it in some areas.” Studies
show that the trajectory of PRC growth means that it poses a far
greater economic challenge to the United States than did Soviet Russia,
Imperial Japan, or Nazi Germany.
There is a growing understanding that the ability of the United States to afford the kind
of resources it spent over the Cold War years on furnishing defense for its
allies will inevitably become more challenging over the balance of the
twenty-first century. From 1940 to 2017, U.S. government debt averaged 61.70
percent of GDP. For 2017, that debt ratio soared to 105 percent of GDP, a level
not seen since 1946. The United States today has accumulated more government
debt than any other country in the world and is approaching the point at which
it can no longer afford to finance its allies’ post WWII traditions of not taking
on more responsibility for their own defense.
Even absent the collapse of the American ‘empire’
the time of lone American superpower status is passing. Relative U.S. economic
and technological decline may translate into significant strategic and military
challenges more rapidly than many expect, leaving allies like Canada with the
requirement to modify their foreign and defence policies.
Such a reappraisal is not just a prescription for
increased defence expenditure. A brave
new world in which Canada takes a greater responsibility for its own security may
well result in a decision that commitments should be more in line with capabilities.
In the past Canadian Forces have taken part in
operations that were only vaguely related to Canadian interests, not committing
to those kinds of operations in the future would free up resources to take part
in more nationally-relevant operations. Maintenance and readiness have both
suffered from over-stretch. Reducing the number of extraneous deployments would
decrease costs and increase readiness.
More care in selecting operations, based on
realistic commitments and driven by changing geopolitical realities, would let
Canada set its own priorities and allow the Armed Forces and our allies to plan
based on actual capabilities.
Canadians like to see themselves as citizens of
middle power that ‘punches above its weight’. It is not true. There are 195 assorted
nations in the world. In terms of economy
Canada has roughly the tenth largest in the world. In terms of defence spending in dollar terms
Canada is the fourteenth largest spender in the world. Even in population
Canada is bigger than 157 of those 195 countries.
Canada is not a small country; we are not even a
middle power. Canada is a large country that actually punches well below its weight.
The time is rapidly approaching when we will no longer have the luxury of pretending
otherwise.
America: The
Farewell Tour
Global Strategic
Trends – Out to 2045
Andrew Krepinevich, Preserving the
Balance: A U.S. Eurasia Defense Strategy,
https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/preserving-the-balance-a-u.s.-eurasia-defense-strategy/publication
Reality
Check: NATO's Defense Budget Woes Won't Disappear
Economy of
Canada
List of
countries by military expenditures
Countries in
the world by population (2018)
