On March 19th
of this year the Government of Canada announced
that as “a part
of Canada’s return to peace operations”
they had committed to deploy an Aviation Task Force to the United Nations
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) for a
period of 12 months. The Aviation Task Force is to include Chinook helicopters
to provide “urgently needed transport and
logistics capacity for the MINUSMA mission”, as well as Griffon helicopters
to provide armed escort and protection. The Task Force is also to be accompanied
by a number of Canadian Armed Forces personnel for support.
The government’s decision
to undertake this mission is widely seen to be a function of both domestic and international politics. Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau had stated in 2016 that Canada would contribute up to
600 troops to UN peacekeeping operations. After a review of the commitment in November
of 2017 the government backed away from that pledge.
According to Adam
Chapnick, a professor of defence at the Royal Military College of Canada (RMC),
“the government is developing
domestically a narrative of [a big] posture of international support, and
taking a step towards building this ‘Canada is back’ narrative.”
The commitment of military
force to Mali is also seen as part of the government’s campaign to get a seat
on the UN Security Council. When Trudeau
pulled Canada out of its pledge to assist in Mali it was reported that some allies warned that our bid for that
position could suffer.
The government may feel
that a commitment of troops and equipment to the United Nations
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) supports it
politically, but the questions remain. Will this commitment help Mali and how
much danger are our troops in? What is the goal, besides supporting the Liberal
government, and do we really know what we are getting into?
Writing for Foreign Policy Robert Malley has
summarised the situation in Mali, he wrote that “Mali’s 2012 crisis, which saw the Malian army routed from the country’s
north, a coup that overthrew the government, and jihadis holding northern towns
for almost a year — illustrates how quickly things can unravel. Since then,
implementation of a peace deal that aimed to end that crisis has stalled, while
instability has spread from the north to Mali’s central region as well as parts
of neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso.
Dynamics in each place are local, but governments’
lack of authority and their inability to stem — and, at times, their frequent
contribution to — violence is a common theme. Weapons that flooded the region
as Libya collapsed after Muammar al-Qaddafi’s overthrow have made local
quarrels deadlier. The instability has opened a rich vein for jihadis, who
piggyback on intercommunal conflict or use Islam to frame struggles against
traditional authorities.
As the situation has degenerated, the regional and
international response has focused excessively on military solutions. Europeans
in particular view the region as a threat to their own safety and a source of
migration and terrorism. In late 2017, a new French-backed force known as the
G5 Sahel — comprising troops from Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and
Mauritania — prepared to deploy into a field already crowded by France’s own
counterterrorism operations, U.S. Special Forces, and U.N. peacekeepers. While
military action must play a part in reducing jihadis’ influence, the G5 force
raises more questions than it answers. It lacks a clear definition of the
enemy, instead envisaging operations against an array of jihadis, traffickers,
and other criminals. Disrupting smuggling in regions where that business
represents the backbone of local economies could alienate communities. Regional
leaders also appear likely to misuse military aid to shore up their own power”.
On March 19th
of this year Conservative defence critic James Bezan was quoted as saying "Mali
is a war zone. This is a combat mission and there is no peace to keep." While some experts have managed to convince
themselves that this is a low risk engagement, for example Jocelyn Coulon, an
expert on peacekeeping at the University of Montreal who previously advised
then-foreign affairs minister Stephane Dion, dismissed such a description."Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen are
war zones. In Mali, there is no bombing and killing every day. Perhaps, two
attacks in Bamako in the past few years,"
On the other hand UN
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres's most recent report on Mali, published at
the end of December, reported that “the deteriorating security situation is
exacerbating an already tense political environment and continues to claim the
lives of civilians, Malian uniformed personnel and (UN) peacekeepers."
In point of fact Mali has
the sad distinction of being the most dangerous peacekeeping mission in the
world; 162 blue helmets have been killed in the country since 2013, 99 of them
through what the UN calls "malicious
acts."
Writing in “The Future of War, a History”
Laurence Freedman pointed out that: “The
category of Civil wars has never been clear-cut because internal conflict often
prompts external intervention-by like-minded militants supporting a religious or ideological cause, neighbours
with local security interests, and major powers acting out of humanitarian or
security concerns. At times external forces have sought to hold the ring or
monitor a fragile ceasefire in the guise of a peacekeeping force. Sometimes
there was no peace to keep, and external intervention effectively took sides,
either by preventing on side from winning by unacceptable means-starving or
massacring civilians, for instance, or ensuring that the most ideologically
sympathetic party came out on top…”
“What might
have started with enemies being rolled over by the sheer weight of firepower
and sophisticated equipment turned into long, complex and messy campaigns.
Their troops entered into a world of shadowy militias, with accomplished
bomb-makers, angry mobs, cynical warlords, and energised youngsters brandishing
their AK-47’s. “
Given this background it
is difficult to know what, aside from scoring points in both the domestic and
on the international scenes, the government hopes to accomplish. The nature of
peacekeeping has changed over the past couple of decades, to the point where
the term is rarely used and has been replaced with the more accurate
"peace support operations."
In point of fact, alongside
the UN ‘peacekeeping’ mission, France is leading a counter-insurgency mission in
Mali and the surrounding area with 4,000 or 5,000 French personnel searching,
tracking, and destroying insurgent groups. Canada will be sending two Chinook
transport helicopters and four smaller Griffons to act as armed escorts for the
larger aircraft, which will be based at the UN's base in Gao where Germany and
the Dutch have previously operated. As well as the UN mission they will be
supporting the allied counterterror effort.
There is no reason to
believe that these efforts will have any effect. Writing in “Discussing the Continuities of War and the Future of Warfare” H.R. McMaster points out that the conviction that “future conflict will be fundamentally
different from all historical experience” is a fallacy that seems
impossible to eradicate. Such beliefs, he
believed, fail to recognise the “uncertainty
of war, the trajectory of which is constantly altered by varied interactions
with determined and elusive enemies.”
In other words, large numbers of smart, aggressive,
trained, motivated and armed people will be doing their best to thwart any
goals, including domestic political ones, the government may have. They will also
be doing their best to kill as many Canadians as they can.
It would appear that just
as Canada is becoming involved in Mali the goal posts, such as they are, are
being move. It is reported
that Canada’s decision to send military helicopters to Mali has coincided with
a major UN review of the peacekeeping mission there to determine whether it is
on the right track or needs to change to better support peace and stability in
the country. It is expected to address
such fundamental questions as why the mission exists, whether troops are
operating in the right areas and, ultimately, whether it is set up to help
bring peace and stability to Mali. Unfortunately it does not appear that the Canadian
government has asked, let alone answered, any of these questions.
While some of the
governments goals are clear what is not clear is what Mali can expect from
Canada’s involvement in their country. It seems unlikely that their wishes in
the matter have played much part in the decision to deploy Canadian Forces to
that region. What is also not clear is what the consequences will be for Mali,
and for Canada, if this African adventure should end in tragedy.
Canada Announces Second
Peacekeeping Smart Pledge - Will send Aviation Task Force to UN Mission in Mali
Trudeau pushing ‘Canada is
back’ narrative with Mali UN peacekeeping mission: experts
Canada will not send
peacekeepers to Mali in near future: officials
10 Conflicts to Watch in
2018
Tories Dishing 'A Lot of
Baloney' On Canada's Peacekeeping Mission To Mali
THE FUTURE OF WAR, A
History, by Lawrence Freedman
US Special Forces shifting
approach on extremism
Discussing the
Continuities of War and the Future of Warfare: The Defense Entrepreneurs Forum
- H.R. McMaster
